Led by Marvel’s “Captain America: Brave New World” (Disney), February will continue the three-month trend of improved box office compared to the previous year. By the end of February, we might be 25 percent of 2024.
Nobody expects that to continue for the full year. If it did, grosses for U.S./Canada theaters would reach $11.5 billion. In 2018 we saw about $12 billion — at current ticket prices, that equates to $15 billion.
January rose 10 percent from last year, but more than two thirds of that gross came from holdovers. “Den of Thieves 2: Pantera” (Lionsgate) was the best of a weak group with $33 million in January, but Universal’s “Dog Man” and Sony’s One of Them Days” will each far exceed that total.
A total of around $550 million in February looks doable; last year was an abysmal $375 million. In the lead will be the new “Captain America,” which is also the first Disney Marvel entry since “Deadpool & Wolverine” last July. It could gross $175 million-$200 million in its first two weeks. By comparison, the most recent “America” franchise release grossed $500 million adjusted.
That’s a nice improvement over last year. But before Covid, February always grossed over $600 million — in many years, over $800 million (adjusted). In 2018, when “Black Panther” debuted, it passed $1 billion unadjusted.
This entry starts a new series, with Anthony Mackie replacing Chris Evans in the lead (same title, different character). It is directed by Julius Onah, whose previous credits include the acclaimed “Luce.” He’s another indie director in the Marvel roster that includes Cate Shortland, Chloe Zhao, Nia DaCosta, Ryan Coogler.
Holdovers led by “Dog Man” should provide a similar amount to the total. “Paddington in Peru” (Sony), which opened in much of the world late last year ($93 million so far) looks like the other new release with the best chance to gross close to $50 million during the month. Both “Paddington” and “Captain America” open February 14, capturing both Valentine’s Day and a four-day holiday weekend.
“The Monkey” (Neon), which opens February 21, is the wild card among the month’s new films. Based on a Stephen King short story, it is directed by Osgood Perkins (“Longlegs”).
Wide releases include “Love Hurts” (Universal) and “Heart Eyes” (Sony), both counterprogrammed against the February 7 Super Bowl; “Unbreakable Boy” (Lionsgate) February 21; and “The Last Breath” (Focus) February 28. These lower-budget originals aren’t projected to break out, but one or more opening over $10 million would boost the month, build on the success of “One of Them Days,” and drive interest in producing similar titles.
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