A $100 million 4-day domestic opening weekend for “Captain America: Brave New World” would appear to signal a profitable theatrical run for the latest Marvel Studios film — that is, if it weren’t for the tepid reception that has come with it.
With a solid but not spectacular 80% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and more worrisome B- on CinemaScore and 3/5 general audience score on PostTrak, “Brave New World” is showing early signs of a big second weekend drop similar to the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s pair of 2023 misfires, “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” and “The Marvels,” both of which were also poorly received by critics and opening-weekend crowds.
Exhibition sources tell TheWrap that “Brave New World” is currently tracking for a similar second weekend total of around $30 million, which would represent a 66% drop from its $88 million 3-day start. “Quantumania,” which opened to $106.1 million over the Friday-Sunday portion of Presidents Day weekend in 2023, dropped nearly 70% to $31.6 million in its second weekend.
Prior to release, insiders at Disney said the studio believed “Brave New World” would have the fuel to reach $200 million in domestic grosses, but a 66% drop would make that goal a borderline prospect. The one big thing “Brave New World” has going for it is that it’s by far the highest-profile release of the first quarter, with the March release slate lacking another “Dune”-level tentpole.
That means “Captain America” will have two more weekends of support from Imax and other formats before those advantages are ceded to Warner Bros.’ “Mickey 17,” a darkly satirical sci-fi film from Bong Joon-ho that is currently projected for an $18 million opening amidst very positive reviews from its Berlin Film Festival premiere.
While there’s still time for Warner Bros. to raise interest in that film, theaters are looking to Marvel for holdover support through the rest of the month given the lack of a four-quadrant title on the horizon. Marvel was once able to reliably draw in more than just its hardcore fan base no matter what film it put out, but in recent years that has only been the case for strongly received films like last year’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” or James Gunn’s MCU swan song “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.”
While “Brave New World” tries to defy gravity, Neon will have the top new release of the weekend with “The Monkey,” the latest film from rising horror director Osgood Perkins. The film comes less than a year after the breakout success of Perkins’ “Longlegs,” which rode a chillingly effective digital marketing campaign to a surprising $22.4 million opening weekend last July and a $126.9 million global total.
“The Monkey” is currently projected for a $17-million opening weekend from 3,000-plus theaters, similar to the pre-release projections for “Longlegs.” And like that film, it is getting strong reviews with an 84% Rotten Tomatoes score. Based on a Stephen King short story and built around gruesome kill scenes and tongue-in-cheek black humor, “The Monkey” follows a pair of twin brothers who try to stop a mysterious toy monkey on a killing spree.
“The Monkey” comes out at a time when theaters have been overloaded with horror films. Along with the breakout holiday hit “Nosferatu,” films like “Wolf Man,” “Companion” and “Heart Eyes” have all hit the big screen to mixed results. “Heart Eyes” has been the top grosser so far with $23 million through two weekends, while “Companion” has struggled to find an audience with $19.1 million through three weekends despite strong reception. “Wolf Man” flamed out with just $20.7 million amid a quick exit from most theaters.
With Perkins still riding high among discerning horror fans thanks to “Longlegs” and “The Monkey” proving to be just as marketable with its amusingly disturbing killer toy plastered across Neon’s promotional material, this film could top its recent genre counterparts and join “Nosferatu” as a specialty distributor success. This won’t be Perkins’ only film in theaters this year, as Neon already has his next project, “Keeper” starring Tatiana Maslany, set for an Oct. 3 release.
Finally, Lionsgate will release Kingdom Story Company’s “The Unbreakable Boy,” a film based on the true story of Austin LeRette, an autistic boy diagnosed with brittle bone disease. The film is currently projected for $5-7 million from approximately 1,700 theaters.
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